The report states that the wholesale inflation is also expected to have declined to 1.4 per cent in April 2025
Driven by sustained slowdown in food inflation, the retail inflation is likely to have declined to 3.2 per cent in April 2025 which would be the lowest since July 2019, as per a report by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). The easing inflation along with steady and sustained real rural wage growth would lift up the consumption demand growth to the highest level since first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the report added.
Prices of key food items such as tomato, onion, potato, pulses and rice, based on the daily retail price data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, decreased 34.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY), 5.7 per cent YoY, 11.3 per cent YoY, 5.2 per cent YoY and four per cent YoY, respectively, in April 2025, as per the report.
“Even the price growth of wheat was meagre at 2.9 per cent year-on-year. On the other hand, Ind-Ra expects wholesale inflation to have declined to 1.4 per cent in April 2025 from two per cent in March 2025,” the report emphasised.
Furthermore, the agency stated that the agriculture sector growth is likely to have strengthened to a two-year high of seven per cent YoY in Q4FY25, due to the combination of a low base effect and good rabi harvesting. Rabi food grain production stood at 164.5 million tonne (MT), up 2.8 per cent YoY in FY25, it highlighted.
On a larger scale, the report added that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to have been a tad lower at 6.3 per cent in FY25 than its earlier forecast of 6.4 per cent. The gross value added (GVA) growth is expected to have firmed up to 6.4 per cent YoY in Q4FY25, at a three-quarter high. Overall, the GVA growth is expected to have averaged 6.3 per cent in FY25, in Ind-Ra’s view.
