India, the world’s largest rice exporter, is expected to witness a decline in rice production for the first time in eight years during the 2023-24 crop year. This development comes amidst concerns over below-average rainfall impacting agricultural output.
The Indian government, through the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, revealed that rice production is projected to fall to 123.8 million metric tonne by June 2024. This figure is a significant decrease compared to the previous year’s output.
Additionally, wheat production, on the other hand, is expected to increase by 1.3 per cent to 112 million tonne, up from 110.6 million tonne the previous year.
The potential decline in rice production has raised concerns about the future of food security and price stability in India. In July 2023, the Indian government implemented a ban on non-basmati white rice exports to mitigate rising domestic food prices. This decision contributed to a surge in global rice prices.
Further, with the upcoming general election in India, the government might consider extending the export restrictions on rice to maintain control over food prices.
However, prolonged export curbs could potentially exacerbate global food price inflation, considering the already low rice inventories in other major exporting nations like Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and Myanmar.
