The rise in headline inflation and food inflation during November 2025 is mainly attributed to an increase in inflation of vegetables, egg, meat and fish, spices and fuel and light
After cooling to a record low of 0.25 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in October 2025, India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has increased to 0.71 per cent in November 2025, data from the Centre showed on Friday.
“The increase in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of November 2025 is mainly attributed to an increase in inflation of vegetables, egg, meat and fish, spices and fuel and light,” the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) highlighted.
Food inflation rose to -3.91 per cent in November, an increase of 111 basis points when compared to October 2025 (-5.02 per cent). The ministry noted that the corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are –4.05 per cent and -3.60 per cent, respectively.
“The inflation has broadly come in line with expectations. While the inflation trajectory is expected to move upward from here on, we see the trajectory fairly benign until 1HFY27. Going ahead, with RBI having kept additional actions data dependent, we see some room for 25bp of repo rate cut. However, the rate cutting cycle is clearly nearing the end, followed by a prolonged pause,” stated Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank.
As far as the rural sector is concerned, the inflation increased to 0.10 per cent in November from -0.25 per cent in October 2025. The CFPI-based food inflation in the rural sector was observed at -4.05 per cent in November 2025 in comparison to -4.85 per cent in October 2025. In urban sector, the inflation increased from 0.88 per cent to 1.40 per cent during the month.
The year-on-year housing inflation rate for November 2025 was 2.95 per cent. The corresponding inflation rate for October 2025 was 2.96 per cent. The housing index is compiled for the urban sector only. The year-on-year fuel and light inflation rate for November 2025 was 2.32 per cent as compared to 1.98 in October. It is combined inflation rate for both rural and urban sector.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has lowered its inflation estimate for the current financial year (FY26) to 2 per cent. The improved outlook is on the back of bright food supply prospects.
The central bank noted that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation for 2025-26 is now projected at 2.0 per cent, with the third quarter (Q3) at 0.6 per cent and Q4 at 2.9 per cent. CPI inflation for Q1FY27 and Q2FY27 is projected at 3.9 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively. The apex bank estimated the headline inflation to print at 2.6 per cent in October.
“Since the October policy, the Indian economy has witnessed rapid disinflation, with inflation coming down to an unprecedentedly low level. For the first time since the adoption of flexible inflation targeting (FIT), average headline inflation for a quarter at 1.7 per cent in Q2FY26, breached the lower tolerance threshold (2 per cent) of the inflation target (4 per cent),” highlighted Sanjay Malhotra, Governor, RBI.
