USDA’s Mumbai office projects a marginal decline in coffee output for 2026–27, with Arabica more impacted than Robusta amid erratic rainfall and heat stress
India’s coffee production in the 2026–27 crop year, beginning October, is projected to decline by around 4 per cent to 6.14 million 60-kg bags (3.68 lakh tonnes), largely due to weather-related yield pressures, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Mumbai office.
In its latest assessment, FAS Mumbai estimates total output at 6.14 million bags, comprising 1.56 million bags of Arabica (93,600 tonnes) and 4.58 million bags of Robusta (2.74 lakh tonnes). For 2025–26, the USDA Post has retained its production estimate at about 6.4 million bags (3.84 lakh tonnes), including 1.73 million bags of Arabica and 4.7 million bags of Robusta.
The state-run Coffee Board is yet to release its initial and post-blossom estimates for 2026–27, as well as final production figures for 2025–26. In its early outlook for 2025–26, the Board had projected output at 4.03 lakh tonnes, including 1.18 lakh tonnes of Arabica and 2.84 lakh tonnes of Robusta.
Arabica Under Pressure, Robusta Holds Steady
The USDA Post highlighted that Arabica output is likely to be more severely impacted by below-normal monsoon rainfall and unusually high temperatures, which could affect flowering, fruit-set and overall plant health. Robusta, which accounts for over 75 per cent of India’s coffee production, is expected to remain comparatively stable due to its higher tolerance to climatic variability.
“Timely rains in March and April supported flowering and early crop development, but recent extreme heat has increased moisture stress and evapotranspiration. Erratic, light showers have been insufficient to stabilize conditions, raising concerns over fruit set and reinforcing the need for adequate blossom (February-March) and backing rains (April-May) for optimal development.
“This is particularly significant for Arabica, which is more temperature sensitive and has higher water requirements compared to Robusta. Under sustained heat stress, Arabica plants may experience reduced photosynthetic efficiency, increased flower drop, and greater irrigation demand,” the report noted.
Yield Outlook Remains Uneven
While rainfall patterns remain uncertain, the USDA Post said below-normal rainfall in 2026–27 could offer some relief for Robusta plantations, particularly after two consecutive seasons of excessive rain that encouraged fungal disease outbreaks. Drier conditions are expected to help reduce such risks.
However, the increasing frequency of erratic rainfall events and extended dry spells following heat spells has added to production uncertainty. The Post has projected Arabica yields to decline by 8 per cent to 452 kg per hectare in 2026–27, while Robusta yields are expected to slip marginally by 2 per cent to 1,239 kg per hectare.
“This is particularly significant for Arabica, which is more temperature sensitive and has higher water requirements compared to Robusta. Under sustained heat stress, Arabica plants may experience reduced photosynthetic efficiency, increased flower drop, and greater irrigation demand,” it added.
Domestic Consumption To Edge Up
On the demand side, India’s domestic coffee consumption in 2026–27 is projected at 1.58 million 60-kg bags (94,800 tonnes), marginally higher than previous levels, supported by rising demand for soluble and instant coffee.
“Household consumption of soluble coffee is expected to account for a significantly larger share of domestic consumption, rising to around 73 per cent next year. Domestic soluble coffee manufacturers recorded double-digit growth in the previous year and remain optimistic about continued expansion, particularly as India’s per capita coffee consumption of 0.04 kg remains well below the global average of 1.3 kg,” it said.
