The rating agency Icra has said that the shift in the festive calendar boosted year-on-year (YoY) growth in economic activity to a 13-month-high of 13.3 per cent in October 2023.
The Icra business activity monitor- an Index of high-frequency indicators revealed that this improvement was largely driven by a shift in the festive calendar in 2023 against 2022.
Nevertheless, the higher month-on-month (MoM) expansion in October 2023 compared to October 2018, when the festive season had begun around the same time as the current year, suggests that economic activity remained robust, aided by pre-festive stocking and the onset of festive demand in the second half of the month.
The early trends for November 2023 are mixed, with moderate electricity demand growth and an expected uptick in daily average vehicle registrations.
Notably, as many as 11 indicators witnessed a double-digit expansion in Oct 2023 vs six in September 2023, aided by a favourable base owing to a shift in the festive period.
According to the Icra, “Vehicle registration witnessed a YoY contraction in Oct 2023, on account of the inauspicious Shraddh period in the first half of the month.”
The Icra business activity monitor surged by 6.3 per cent on an MoM basis in October 2023 on the back of a seasonal pick-up in mining and construction activity following the end of the South-west Monsoon season as well as the increase in production and movement of goods for the festive season.
“This exceeded the MoM uptick of 5.3 per cent that was seen in October 2018, when the festive season had begun around the same time as in the current year,” it stated.
