Retail and telecom units projected to drive over half of Reliance’s FY25 Ebitda as brokerage maintains ‘Overweight’ rating
Global investment bank JP Morgan values Reliance Retail at USD 121 billion and Reliance Jio Infocomm at USD 92 billion, weeks after Reliance Industries’ Chairman Mukesh Ambani revealed plans to list the telecom arm, as per media reports.
Reliance’s consumer-focused divisions, retail and telecom, are expected to be the primary growth drivers for the conglomerate in the coming years. Together, these two businesses are projected to contribute about 54 per cent of Reliance’s consolidated Ebitda for FY25 and are anticipated to power nearly all of the company’s earnings expansion over the next three years.
For Reliance Retail, JP Morgan estimates a valuation of Rs 10.5 trillion (Rs 776 per share), applying a 34.5x multiple to projected FY27–28 Ebitda. The brokerage forecasts Ebitda of Rs 34,400 crore in FY27 and Rs 39,000 crore in FY28. While it trades at a lower multiple compared to Avenue Supermarts (42x), JP Morgan suggested that an IPO or stake sale could unlock additional value.
Reliance Jio Infocomm has been assessed at Rs 8 trillion (Rs 592 per share), using a 13x multiple of expected FY27–28 Ebitda. Its Ebitda is predicted to reach Rs 86,400 crore by FY27 and nearly Rs 97,600 crore by FY28. Analysts expect tariff hikes ahead of Jio’s proposed 2026 listing, which would strengthen margins and profitability.
On the other hand, Reliance’s traditional oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division has been valued at Rs 4.85 trillion (Rs 358 per share), underlining how the company’s value base is shifting away from refining and petrochemicals towards consumer-centric businesses. Smaller valuations were assigned to real estate, exploration, semiconductors and renewables.
JP Morgan has maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating on Reliance, with a price target of Rs 1,695 for September 2026. The brokerage cited attractive valuations, an improving cash-flow outlook as telecom capex declines, and management’s commitment to keeping the net debt-to-Ebitda ratio below 1x. With Reliance generating close to USD 20 billion in annual Ebitda, it is expected to turn cash-flow positive even as investments continue in new energy, retail and petrochemicals.
Risks include weaker margins in O2C, delays in tariff adjustments for telecom, slower progress at the new energy complex, or a subdued earnings cycle that could push debt higher. However, the report emphasised that sustained growth in Reliance Retail’s earnings could further support the stock’s valuation.
