A report says that hygiene concerns and organised retail expansion have driven a durable shift from loose to branded staples
With aspirations converging on their metro counterparts, Bharat households are expected to consume over USD 1 trillion worth of goods and services by the financial year 2030, as per a new report by Redseer Strategy Consultants on Friday.
Driven by over 150 million households, they are set to rise from around 31 per cent to around 40 per cent of all Indian households by FY30, as nuclearisation and a durable shift from loose to packaged food create millions of new, value -conscious grocery buyers. The report added that the overall consumption by Bharat households stood between USD 625 to USD 675 billion in FY24, which is expected to rise by 9 to 10 per cent till FY30.
The report added that Bharat consumption per household at current prices is also set to grow 4 to 5 per cent over the same period from USD 5,900-USD 6,400 to USD 7,600- USD 8,100 by FY30. This rise is expected to result in a big business opportunity for value grocery.
The Value Grocery Opportunity
The report emphasised that the value grocery opportunity remains overwhelmingly skewed towards kiranas, leaving ample room for digital play. India grocery is expected to grow from USD 658 billion to around USD 992 billion by FY30, yet has a 91 per cent kirana share. Online retail is splitting in two, where quick commerce is driving scale among the India 1 households (upper -mid+ income), while value grocery is unlocking new users from the Bharat household base (lower -mid income).
Household fragmentation in Bharat is creating well-informed grocery shoppers who are willing to pay a premium for healthier choices. The report added that the proliferation of nuclear families has created millions of new, independent grocery buyers, underpinning strong demand across all packaged -food categories.
Redseer added that systematic sugar and sodium reductions in legacy FMCG portfolios, coupled with a shift towards healthier oils, such as mustard oil, desi ghee, confirm that Bharat consumers will bear a 10 to 15 per cent premium for fortified, clean -label offerings. Hygiene concerns and organised retail expansion have driven a durable shift from loose to branded staples, as packaged edible oil penetration has jumped to 70 per cent and packaged atta/rice are growing in the high –teens.
Online Retail And Kirana
The report added that online retail growth is increasingly transaction-led, with around 40 per cent YoY growth in FY26, supported by around 25 per cent user growth, largely driven by user unlock through value commerce. However, Kirana remains the preferred destination for value grocery, especially low-ticket purchases
At a geographic level, metro markets are driving gross merchandise value (GMV) expansion through quick commerce, while user growth is concentrated in tier -2+ markets via the value grocery model, highlighting a structural divergence in growth drivers. At a category level, Grocery, BPC and BGM continue to remain strong growth drivers, while fashion is seeing recovery -led growth after a period of muted performance.
