The ongoing global memory shortage is expected to constrain supply and raise prices, which will impact low-to-mid range Android devices more significantly
While the near-term forecast for global smartphone shipments has strengthened, a report has stated that the 2026 growth has been revised downward from 1.2 per cent growth to 0.9 per cent decline, due to a combination of component shortages and product cycle adjustments.
Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 1.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.25 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) worldwide quarterly mobile phone tracker. This is an increase from 1 per cent growth in prior forecast, primarily driven by accelerated performance from Apple in the holiday quarter, rapid growth in key emerging markets and stabilisation in China.
Apple’s shipments are expected to grow 6.1 per cent YoY in 2025, up sharply from 3.9 per cent in the last cycle. Apple’s strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is forecast to pull down iOS shipments by 4.2 per cent next year, the report mentioned.
“Apple is set to have a record year in 2025 with shipments forecast to cross 247 million units, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series. In China, Apple’s largest market, the massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance. It ranked first in October and November per IDC’s China Monthly Sales data with more than 20 per cent share, miles ahead of the competition, leading IDC to revise Apple’s Q4 forecast in China from 9 per cent to 17 per cent YoY,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s worldwide quarterly mobile phone tracker.
Furthermore, the ongoing global memory shortage is expected to constrain supply and raise prices, which will impact low-to-mid range Android devices more significantly as they remain more price sensitive. As a result, smartphone units will face a soft decline in 2026, however average selling price (ASP) will increase to USD 465, propelling the market to its record high value of USD 578.9 billion, the report noted.
The report emphasised that vendors need to adopt different strategies to protect their market share. While some original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will inevitably be forced to raise prices, others will adjust their portfolio towards pricier models with higher margins to absorb some of the memory impact on BOM.
