The retailer has lowered its operating margin and earnings growth forecasts and now expects a slight decline in net free cash flow, despite stronger-than-expected third-quarter sales
Carrefour has scaled back its 2026 profit margin and cash flow expectations as civil unrest and security concerns in France threaten store operations and rising energy costs squeeze consumer spending. The revised outlook signals mounting pressure on Europe’s largest food retailer to sustain profitability while keeping prices competitive in its biggest market.
“Our group is facing an unprecedented situation in France. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding consumer spending trends and the conditions under which our stores will be able to open,” CEO Alexandre Bompard said in a statement.
The company now expects its operating margin to improve by zero to 15 basis points in 2026 compared with the previous year, against its earlier forecast of a 25-basis-point increase. Carrefour also lowered its expectations for adjusted earnings per share, shifting from projected high single-digit growth to a range of stable to slight growth.
Its net free cash flow outlook has weakened from modest growth to a slight decline, reflecting a more cautious assessment of the business environment. Carrefour nevertheless expects recurring operating income (ROI) to increase during the year.
The downgrade comes despite a better-than-expected third quarter. Carrefour reported like-for-like sales growth of 2.3 per cent to EUR 22.7 billion ( USD 25.5 billion), exceeding the 2.1 per cent increase projected in a company-compiled analysts’ consensus. Growth also improved from 1.9 per cent in the preceding quarter, with France and Brazil contributing to the stronger performance.
In France, like-for-like sales rose 1.2 per cent, supported by price reductions and the continued integration of Cora stores. However, weekend riots affecting numerous stores have added uncertainty over operating conditions, while higher energy costs threaten to further constrain household purchasing power.
Carrefour is seeking to strengthen its position in France, Brazil and Spain while improving returns through a combination of competitive pricing and cost control. In France, the retailer is expanding its franchise model to generate savings, while investing in artificial intelligence, data and technology to improve operational efficiency.
The revised guidance puts the focus on whether Carrefour can maintain sales momentum without sacrificing margins as it navigates disruption in France. Its strategy depends on balancing lower prices to attract shoppers with savings from its operating model, at a time when both store operations and consumer demand face greater uncertainty.
