The report has also raised its gross order value (GOV) estimates for the quick commerce segment in India by 9 to 11 per cent for the financial year 2026 to the financial year 2028
With smaller cities and towns reporting increased traction in online orders, India’s quick commerce total addressable market (TAM) is expected to reach USD 57 billion by 2030, as per the media reports, which cited Morgan Stanley.
Citing the rising quick commerce adoption across the country, Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast from earlier USD 42 billion, and has also raised its gross order value (GOV) estimates for the quick commerce segment in India by 9 to 11 per cent for the financial year 2026 to the financial year 2028.
The reports added that continued progress in food delivery margins, stable environment in terms of competition, as well as sustained growth in quick commerce GOV have been noted as key catalysts for the sector going ahead. The report highlighted that with a profitability profile over the medium term that is expected to replicate its food delivery business, the quick commerce business of Eternal (formerly Zomato) is primed for growth.
Hurdles like a low TAM, tapering growth in monthly transacting users (MTUs) and enhanced competition from ecommerce players are expected to make things challenging for the quick commerce players, the reports highlighted.
The reports noted that the adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) loss margin is likely to peak in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2025, indicating that the path to profitability remains intact. Led by a growing number of cities and a larger base of MTUs, the revised TAM by Morgan Stanley reflects the structural expansion of the market, the reports noted.
Earlier, a report by Bain and Company, in collaboration with Flipkart, noted that quick commerce is projected to grow at over 40 per cent annually through 2030, driven by expansion across categories, geographies, and customer segments.
