Players are not only growing stock-keeping units (SKUs) and introducing premium and D2C product lines but also monetising storefronts with in-app advertising and brand placements
India’s quick commerce market is set to grow 3x by the financial year 2028, with Gross Order Value (GOV) expected to reach nearly Rs two lakh crore, as per a report by CareEdge. The platform fee revenues are expected to surpass Rs 34,000 crore. The sector is expected to maintain strong double-digit growth in the coming years, led by rising adoption and expansion in tier two and three cities, enhanced delivery networks, and a shift in consumer preference towards instant fulfilment.
The report noted that the country’s quick commerce is moving from simply fast to more innovative and more strategic. Multiple players are not only growing stock-keeping units (SKUs) and introducing premium and direct-to-consumer (D2C) product lines but also monetising storefronts with in-app advertising and brand placements.
A separate report by Bain & Company highlighted that quick commerce is projected to grow at over 40 per cent annually through 2030, driven by expansion across categories, geographies, and customer segments. In its ‘How India Shops Online 2025’ report, it said that while quick commerce began with grocery, 15 to 20 per cent of its Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) now comes from categories such as general merchandise, mobile phones, electronics, and apparel.
“While growth remains strong, the focus is shifting from rapid expansion to reviving profitability and operational efficiency. Going forward, deeper penetration in tier two and three cities, and tech-led innovations will likely define the next phase of India’s quick commerce landscape,” says Tanvi Shah, Senior Director and Head, CareEdge Advisory and Research.
The major players are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) for hyperlocal demand forecasting, optimising dark store layouts through heatmaps, and facilitating quicker picking with voice and light-assisted systems. Logistics is becoming more focused, with automated dispatching and dynamic rider routing, it added.
“Quick commerce industry is still just around 1 per cent of India’s massive grocery market, but that’s exactly what makes it exciting. As more consumers embrace the speed and convenience it offers, quick commerce is set to grow rapidly, even if the broader grocery market growth remains flat,” noted Amir Shaikh, Assistant Director, CareEdge Advisory and Research.
The country’s quick commerce market is estimated to have reached around Rs 64,000 crore in FY25, growing at a staggering compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 142 per cent during FY22 to FY25, driven by evolving consumer preferences, hyperlocal infrastructure, and a lower base.
Digital And Demographic Tailwinds
India’s quick commerce surge is strongly driven by rising digital adoption and expanding consumer spending power, as per the report. India had over 270 million online shoppers in 2024, making it the second-largest e-retail user base globally. The ecommerce market grew 23.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in 2024 and is expected to maintain a CAGR of 21.5 per cent through 2030.
CareEdge noted that Per capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), which is a measure of consumer spending, has also showcased significant growth from FY15 to FY25 at a CAGR of 9.68 per cent. Smartphone penetration has been increasing among Indian households, including a growing share in rural areas.
The Tale Of Dark Stores
The actual operational engine driving quick commerce is in dark stores, or micro-warehouses, which enable ultra-fast delivery. CareEdge emphasised that during FY24-25, the number of dark stores increased from approximately 1,800 to 3,072, representing a 70.7 per cent YoY growth. Moreover, average per-store revenue increased by 25.1 per cent during the same period, indicating improved unit economics and a more efficient use of space and inventory, the report noted.
“As the sector scales further, the next wave of optimisation, through intelligent zoning, advanced demand forecasting, and warehouse automation, is expected to revive the profitability scenario, reinforcing the backbone of India’s logistics ecosystem,” the report pointed out.
The report explained that this expansion is not limited to metro cities. Still, it is gradually extending into tier two and tier three locations, indicating a clear intent to build wider national coverage and improve last-mile efficiency.
The Math Of Revenue Generation
The report explained that the quick commerce market revenue generated through fees has grown at a significantly faster pace than the GOV. The fee-based revenue, which stood at Rs 450 crore in FY22, has reached an estimated Rs 10,500 crore in FY25. Adding further, the report stated that this is projected to reach Rs 34,500 crore by FY28, representing a significant CAGR of 26 to 27 per cent from FY25 to FY28.
“This sharp increase is due to increased platform fees by major players, resulting in higher revenue realisation and a substantial increase in overall GOV. A key driver behind this trend is the improved monetisation take rate of leading platforms,” CareEdge explained.
The fee rate across the quick commerce sector has shown a sharp upward trend between FY22 and FY25, driven by improved monetisation strategies. For instance, leading players reported take rate increases from around 7 to 9 per cent in FY22 to 14 to 18 per cent by FY25, effectively doubling in three years, the report highlighted.
With platforms shifting focus from hypergrowth to revive profitability, leveraging advertising, subscriptions, private labels, and tech-led inventory optimisation, these strategic shifts are expected to support sustainable and long-term growth.
