Higher domestic prices and cheaper South American supplies erode competitiveness, triggering sharp shift in Asian demand
India’s soymeal exports are set to fall by half this year to a four-year low as a 47 per cent surge in prices over the past month has sharply weakened its competitiveness against cheaper South American supplies, according to media reports.
The steep rise in domestic prices has made Indian shipments unviable in global markets, leading international buyers to shift sourcing towards South and North America. This redirection is expected to boost export flows from those regions, particularly into Asian markets that have traditionally depended on Indian soymeal supplies.
Manoj Agrawal, managing director of Maharashtra Oil Extractions, a soymeal exporter, said Indian prices are now significantly higher than global benchmarks. He noted that oil mills are not receiving fresh export enquiries and are finding it difficult to secure export deals.
Indian soymeal is currently being offered at around $680 per metric ton on a free-on-board basis for June-loading shipments, compared with about USD 430 per metric ton from South American suppliers, exporters said.
Against this pricing gap, India’s soymeal exports are projected to decline to around 900,000 metric tons in the 2025-26 marketing year ending September, compared with 2.02 million tons in the previous year, Agrawal said.
Vinod Jain, founder of Suraj Impex, an agricultural goods exporter, said South American supplies are rising and remain far more competitive than Indian soymeal, adding that buyers have already shifted sourcing to those markets.
India is the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils but continues to produce a surplus of soymeal, which is exported to countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Germany and the Netherlands. These shipments typically command a premium due to their non-genetically modified soybean origin.
The country imports most of its palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, while soyoil and sunflower oil are sourced largely from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.
Domestically, soymeal prices rose to Rs 64,625 per ton on Tuesday, marking a 47 per cent increase over the past month and an 85 per cent rise since the start of the season on 1 October, tracking gains in soybean prices.
Market participants said soybean prices have been rising due to lower output caused by adverse weather conditions, while demand from the domestic poultry sector remains strong.
A leading soybean processor based in Latur, Maharashtra, said tight supplies are keeping soybean prices firm and are expected to sustain elevated soymeal prices over the next few months.
