The government is concerned about reduced rabi crop sowing potentially leading to heightened inflation prior to the 2024 general elections, especially with significant price hikes in cereals and pulses.
As the rabi sowing nears completion, data from the agriculture ministry indicates a decrease in the area under wheat by 4 per cent, rice by 2 per cent and pulses by over 10 per cent compared to last year.
The total area under winter-sown crops has reduced by 2.5 per cent, amounting to 2.9 million hectares, signaling a drop from the previous year and below the five-year average of 64.8 million hectares for rabi crops.
Water levels in India’s major reservoirs have notably declined by 20 per cent, attributed to deficient monsoon rainfall and slow progress in the north-eastern monsoon. Experts suggest the looming El Nino could potentially lead to moisture stress on the standing rabi crops.
Rising temperatures during El Niño years could also adversely impact crop yields, adding further strain.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at Icra, spoke to a media house and expressed concerns about delayed sowing affecting food prices and the potential impact of El Niño on crops like wheat.
Analysts anticipate subpar growth in the agriculture sector for the third and fourth quarters of 2023-24, likely translating to less than 2 per cent growth for the year. This grim outlook on rabi output casts a shadow on rural sentiments and consumption.
Retail inflation, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), has shown fluctuations, hitting a three-month high of 5.5 per cent in November. The data revealed significant inflation rates for vegetables at 17.7 per cent, pulses at 20.2 per cent, cereals at 10.3 per cent and fruits at 11 per cent.
