Counterpoint Research say that early festive demand pulls sales forward, diverging from the global growth trend, while premium brands stay resilient
India’s smartphone market is expected to register a year-on-year decline in the December quarter of 2025, diverging from the global trend of modest growth, as an early festive season pulled demand into earlier months, according to Counterpoint Research.
Global smartphone sell-through volumes are forecast to grow about 1 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2025, with most regions recording gains. India, along with Latin America and Eastern Europe, is among the few markets expected to see a contraction during the quarter, Counterpoint said in its Market Pulse Early Look report.
Analysts attributed the slowdown in India to front-loaded festive demand earlier in the year, which reduced incremental purchases in the October–December period compared with Q4 2024. The impact was more pronounced in the mass-market and mid-range segments, where demand is closely linked to promotions and seasonal buying.
Apple Lifts Global Market
Despite the weaker quarter in India, the global smartphone market is set to end 2025 on a stronger note. Full-year global sell-through volumes are projected to rise 3 per cent year-on-year, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, resilient premium demand in mature markets and continued 5G-led upgrades in emerging economies.
Apple is expected to become the world’s top smartphone brand for the first time in a calendar year since 2011. The company is forecast to post 11 per cent year-on-year volume growth globally in Q4, potentially achieving a record sell-through in a single calendar quarter, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, including steady traction in India’s premium segment.
Pressure Points In 2026
Samsung is likely to record 2 per cent year-on-year growth globally in the December quarter, supported by demand for its A-series smartphones in price-sensitive markets, while Xiaomi is forecast to see a 5 per cent year-on-year decline in Q4 volumes but remain flat for the full year 2025.
Looking ahead, Counterpoint warned that the smartphone market could face headwinds in 2026, including in India, due to rising component costs and shortages of DRAM and NAND memory. As chipmakers prioritise AI data centres, higher bill-of-materials costs are likely to be passed on to consumers, potentially weighing on demand in lower-priced segments and prompting manufacturers to rein in promotional activity.
