The report says that heavy rain could push up perishable prices in the second half of August 2025 and remain a key monitorable
Amid the hardening in year-on-year (YoY) prints for food and crude oil, ongoing depreciation in the USD/INR pair and an unfavourable base, the headline wholesale price index (WPI) is expected to re-enter the inflationary territory in August 2025, Icra said in a report.
The report highlighted that heavy rain could push up perishable prices in the second half of August 2025 and remain a key monitorable. The YoY prints of wholesale prices of most essential food items have hardened in August (upto 13 August) as compared to july 2025. The WPI-food index is likely to revert to the inflationary zone in August, after a gap of two months.
In addition, the YoY contraction in crude oil prices has narrowed between these months, while the average USD/INR pair has depreciated , which may push up landed cost of imports. The YoY deflation in the WPI expectedly widened to 0.6 per cent in July from 0.1 per cent in June, while printing largely in line with Icra’s expectation of -0.4 per cent.
This was driven by the WPI-food index that saw a larger YoY contraction to the tune of 2.1 per cent as against 0.3 per cent in the previous month, even as the prints for all other segments, including manufactured non-food products, rose somewhat between these months.
The report emphasised that vegetables, pulses and condiments and spices continued to register a double-digit deflation in July 2025, weighing on the primary food articles in June print in the month, despite an adverse base. The report noted that the sequential build-up in this segment has been quite benign, at just 2.5 per cent between March 2025 and July 2025, as against 11.3 per cent during the year-ago period.
