In an interview, Gunjan Jain says that the impact of the West Asia crisis goes far beyond a few categories, with disruptions hitting the entire supply chain
India’s nuts and dry fruits supply chain is staring at a prolonged disruption as the ongoing West Asia conflict, coupled with route closures across land, air and sea, continues to choke imports of key commodities. Gunjan Jain, President, Nuts and Dry Fruits Council of India (NDFCI) said that even if hostilities ease in the near term, supplies are unlikely to stabilise immediately, with normalisation expected to take a few months.
In an interview with BW Businessworld, Jain emphasised that the supply has been effectively cut off from multiple sourcing channels, from Afghanistan via the Attari land route to Iran-linked sea shipments through Bandar Abbas, while air routes have also been impacted, leading to near-zero fresh inflows in categories such as figs, munakka and apricots. The disruption has also forced India to rely more heavily on costlier US supplies for pistachios and walnuts, tightening availability and keeping prices elevated in the near term.
“New stocks are not coming. Even when the war stops, it will take at least two-to-three months before supplies will normalise,” Jain pointed out.
Multi-route Disruptions
Jain explained that the impact of the West Asia crisis goes far beyond a few categories, with disruptions hitting the entire supply chain. He underlined that the situation is “much, much bigger” than just pistachios and dates, pointing to a cascading effect that began with “Operation Sindoor” and intensified with geopolitical tensions. With the Attari land route shut, air shipments from Kandahar halted and the Bandar Abbas port closure blocking sea routes, “in figs, apricots, munakka, there is supply zero,” he said, adding that “whatever stock is in India, is in India.” As a result, India is headed towards a “huge, huge shortfall” in these categories.
The crisis has also sharply altered sourcing dynamics, especially in pistachios. India, which traditionally preferred cheaper Iranian supplies—“about Rs 90 a kilo to Rs 100 a kilo” lower than US origins, is now left with no imports from Iran. “There is no goods coming in from Iran,” Jain noted, forcing a complete dependence on US supplies, where “California has raised their prices even further,” exacerbating cost pressures.
On the policy front, while US tariff cuts could ease the situation, price relief may not be immediate. “Retail prices will not fall immediately,” Jain said, though a gradual “correction in the supply chain” is expected over time. He flagged steep duties and stated, “walnuts have a 100 per cent tariff, raisins have a 105 per cent tariff”. Any reduction, he emphasised, would not just lower prices but significantly boost consumption, as “demand will shoot up” in a price-sensitive and largely vegetarian market.
“Walnuts are absolutely needed in India because of the omega 3 and Alpha-linolenic acid. Raisins are the main non-fish source of omega 3. And India being 40 per cent vegetarian, walnuts are actually a necessity. Walnuts and flax seeds are the only ones that can give you omega 3. With 100 per cent duty, it has become very prohibitive,” he added.
Union Budget And Grow In India
Jain welcomed the government’s increased focus on the sector, noting that it comes after sustained industry efforts. “We are happy that at least the government started looking at our segment,” he said, adding that the push towards domestic cultivation under the “Grow in India” campaign is “a start” but will take time to translate into tangible outcomes. A key bottleneck remains the lack of inputs, with Jain pointing out that “the biggest problem is India does not have the planting materials.”
He also highlighted structural challenges at the farm level, especially the long gestation period. “Any nut tree… is a five to six year gestation period,” he said, questioning, “what does the farmer do till then?” This lack of near-term returns discourages adoption, prompting the industry to work with the government on a white paper to address these gaps. Drawing a comparison, he noted that while India’s walnut production has remained stagnant at “30,000 tonne,” China has scaled up to “12 lakh tonnes” by leveraging similar climatic regions.
On policy support, while GST rationalisation has been a “big success,” Jain flagged the need for further interventions to unlock growth. The industry, which pays around “Rs 8,000 crore in terms of custom duties and GST,” is now seeking measures such as “interest subvention or a PLI.” He remains optimistic about long-term demand, projecting that India’s nut consumption will grow “by about 10 to 15 per cent every year,” but stressed that domestic production is critical, as meaningful output will only materialise over a “ten-year horizon.”
Limited Disruption From Private Labels And D2C
Jain added that India’s dry fruits market remains heavily tilted towards raw consumption, with “almost at a 90:10 where 90 per cent is the raw commodity side.” While there is a visible shift towards processed and premium formats, “this trend is changing fast,” he said, driven by experimentation and new-age players. However, the transition will be slow and steady.
“Even ten years from now, I do not see the value-added to the raw becoming like 50:50 or something. At max, maybe it will be a win if we are able to add 2 to 3 per cent of shift every year,” he highlighted.
On competition, he downplayed the impact of private labels, highlighting the fragmented nature of the industry. “Just to give you context, as VKC Nuts, operating under the flagship brand Nutraj, we are the largest player in the industry. But we are about just 5 per cent of the industry. The next player to me is one-fourth our size. The next player is, let us say, 1 per cent of the industry or something. It is such a fragmented industry,” he explained.
“Private labels… have not been able to disrupt,” and are “a little less efficient than some of the brands,” he noted. Jain added that he sees private labels as a net positive for the category, accelerating the shift from loose to branded products. With “60 per cent of the industry… still loose” and only 40 per cent packaged, retailer-led brands are helping expand shelf space and visibility.
Similarly, the impact of quick commerce and D2C remains minimal for now, as “the overall impact… is so small” that “the needle is not really moving,” given the highly fragmented and evolving nature of the market.
Unlocking India’s Export Potential
Jain highlighted that India already plays a unique role in the global nuts value chain, with a strong processing base. Unlike other markets, “we bring them in-shell, we crack them here, we process them here,” he said, adding that this effectively aligns with the “Make in India campaign.” However, despite being “the largest processing hub in the world,” India remains primarily a consumption market, limiting its export potential.
He warned that rising import dependence is a structural concern, with the country already importing “Rs 27,000 crore worth of nuts and dry fruit a year,” a figure that will continue to grow if domestic production is not scaled. While processing strength exists, “our exports have been falling every year on year,” as high domestic consumption absorbs most of the output.
Jain pointed out that the only sustainable solution is to “grow in India,” which requires long-term policy support and farmer incentives. Structural constraints such as land ceiling laws and long gestation periods make large-scale farming difficult, meaning “you have to encourage the farmer” through targeted interventions. The challenge, he noted, is designing policies that enable farmers to commit to a “six-year, seven-year bet,” making government support critical to building India’s position as a sourcing and export hub.
