Crisil notes that any further production losses could intensify supply-side pressures, raise food inflation risks
As rainfall in Punjab and Telangana exceeded the normal by over 50 per cent in August, with Punjab facing its worst floods in four decades, Crisil has stated that persistent heavy rainfall has dampened crop prospects across key states.
The report noted that Punjab’s 74 per cent above-normal rainfall in August flooded around 70,000 hectare of farmland out of 4.24 million hectare of arable land. Paddy, sugarcane and cotton crops were submerged across districts. The floods also severely damaged horticulture crops. The early yield of cauliflower in Amritsar, Ludhiana, Moga, Kapurthala, Gurdaspur and Pathankot districts is affected by 10 to 15 per cent, and tomato transplanting is also delayed.
Along the banks of the Yamuna and Ganga and their tributaries, submergence in Lakhimpur, Gonda, Bahraich and Prayagraj affected paddy, though damage was limited. Cucurbits in Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar and chilli in Ghazipur, Varanasi and Mirzapur sustained losses, the report added.
Rajasthan, too, is seeing yield risks in maize, cotton, bajra, jowar, green gram, and black gram, while other states report localised impacts. With September rainfall coinciding with key growth stages of kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, soybean, maize, and onion, it remains a crucial monitorable.
Crisil added that localised flooding has caused limited stress in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Paddy, maize and cotton have been mostly unaffected, though yield has declined for pulses (black and green gram) from flower drop.
The report emphasised that September’s rainfall pattern will be critical with the India Meteorological Department projecting above-normal precipitation across northern and central India. Any further production losses could intensify supply-side pressures, raise food inflation risks and weigh on consumption and price stability.
Sharing the insight on the monsoon, Crisil explained that southwest monsoon arrived early this year, on 24 May, prompting advanced sowing of paddy, maize, cotton and pulses and key horticultural crops such as onion, tomato, okra and banana. By 29 June, it had covered the country a day ahead of schedule.
